学位论文工作阶段如何写留学生毕业论文:Dissertation Session - 蜂朝网
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学位论文工作阶段如何写留学生毕业论文:Dissertation Session

时间: 2014-01-22 编号:sb201401221553 作者:蜂朝网
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文章摘要:
如何撰写研究论文:文章介绍:文献综述、原理:假设进行测试、数据和汇总统计、结果:描述和解释、结论与启示、引用.

PLAN 

 

A.  How to write a research paper  

B.  Basic panel data regression analysis using Stata 

A.  How to write a research paper 

I.  Outline of a research project 

1. Introduction 

2. Literature review 

3. Theory: hypotheses to be tested 

4. Data and summary statistics 

5. Results: description and interpretation 

6. Conclusions and implications 

7. Referencing 3 


1.  Introduction 

 

It is a statement of the problem you are analyzing, its background, and its importance.  It  also  provides  a  roadmap  to  what  will  be  covered  in  the remaining part of the paper. 

a. Make the reader aware of the GENERAL area of study. 

Example: ―How enterprises are financed is an important question due to the fact that financial capital is essential to the formation and subsequent operation of an enterprise.‖ [Du, J., Guariglia, A., and A. Newman, (2009). “Does social capital affect the financing decisions of Chinese SMEs?” Mimeograph] 4 

b. Also focus upon what is the SPECIFIC area of research. 

Example:  ―In  recent  years,  empirical  work  on  capital  structure  has  been extended to the developing economies‘ context.‖ (Du et al., 2009)  

c. Make clear what is the GAP in the literature that you are aiming to fill  

Example: ―We contribute to the literature in two main ways. First, we examine the  capital  structure  determinants  of Chinese  SMEs  using  a  large  dataset representative  of  firm  activity  across  the  whole  country.  To  the  best  of our knowledge, no empirical study has been conducted to test the applicability of existing capital structure theories to SMEs in the Chinese context. Second, we consider social capital as a determinant of capital structure. Although previous work has found a relationship between social capital and firm performance, no work has been conducted on the relationship between social capital and capital structure in the Chinese context.‖ (Du et al., 2009)

d. Clearly define the research question that you are addressing 

Example:  ―Analyzing  the  role  of  social  capital  as  a  determinant  of  capital structure of Chinese SMEs.‖ (Du et al., 2009). 

e. Explain why this research question is worthy of investigation 

Example: ―It is new and may help to explain why traditional theories of capital structure cannot be applied in the Chinese context.‖ (Du et al., 2009). 

 

f. Provide an outline of what comes next 

 

Example: ―The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we  describe  a  theoretical  background about  capital  structure  theories.  In Section  3,  we  present  our  baseline  specification,  and  discuss  our  estimation methodology.  Section  4  describes  our  data  and  presents  some  descriptive statistics. In section 5, we illustrate and discuss our results. Finally, in section 6, we provide some conclusions.‖ (Du et al., 2009). 

Note: in the introduction, only refer to a few of the key papers which have triggered your interest, and which you are building upon. Do not provide a full literature review in the introduction. The literature review is the object of the next section. 

 

2. Literature review 

 

 It  should  present  a  focussed  and  a  carefully  structured  outline  of  what others (academics/researchers) have done in your topic/problem area. 

 You need to properly organise the literature 

Example:  

 Empirical studies on capital structure that focussed on the US and the UK 

 Empirical  studies  on  capital  structure  that  focused  on  developing  and transition countries 

 Empirical studies on capital structure that focused on China 

 Be selective. DO NOT: 

 simply  provide  a  list  of  as  many  articles  and  names  of  scholars  as possible. 

 offer a reference to each and every piece of literature in the area. 

 

3.  Theory: hypotheses to be tested 

 

 This section is aimed at  

 deriving and/or motivating your empirical work 

 clarifying your idea in readers‘ minds 

 State the hypotheses that you are testing 

 

Example: 

H1:  There  will  be  a  positive  relationship  between  firm  size  and  short-term leverage (STL), long-term leverage (LTL), and total leverage (TL). 

H2: There will be a positive relationship between firm age and STL, LTL and TL. 

H3: There will be a positive relationship between asset structure and LTL and a negative relationship with STL and TL. H4: There will be a negative relationship between profitability and STL, LTL and TL. 

H5: There will be a positive relationship between social capital and STL, LTL and TL. (Du et al., 2009) 


 Obviously, you will need to motivate the intuition why you expect each of 

these hypotheses to hold. 

 

4. Data and summary statistics 

 

•Describe your data, what they consist in, where they come from. Lengthier if you are using a novel data set; shorter if data are well known  

•Descriptive  statistics:  can  provide  preliminary  evidence  for  what  you  are testing 


Example: 

   

Foreigncap 

=0%  

(1) 

0%< 

Foreigncap<50% 

(2) 

50% 

Foreigncap< 

100% 

(3) 

Foreigncap 

=100% 

(4) 

ROA 

0.037 

0.056 

0.060 

0.046 

ROS  0.025  0.042  0.047  0.032 

PROD  0.058  0.112  0.185  0.091 

TFP  0.027  0.033  0.037  0.028 

         

 

Notes: Foreigncap represents the fraction of the firm‘s capital paid in by foreign investors. ROA represents the firm‘s returns to assets and is given byits net income over its total assets. ROS represents the firm‘s returns to sales and is given by its net income over its total sales. PROD represents labor productivity, i.e. the ratio of the firm‘s net income to its number of employees. TFP is total factor productivity  

 

―We can see that ROA, ROS, PROD, and TFP, all increase with the degree of foreign  ownership,  but  decline  for  those  observations  that  are  100%  foreign owned.  This  suggests  that  joint-ventures  perform  better  than  foreign  owned and purely domestic firms, and may reflect the fact that both the domestic and the foreign parties of a joint-venture bring in attributes essential to achieving high  performance.‖  [Greenaway,  D.,  Guariglia,  A.,  and  Z.  Yu  (2009).  “The more  the  better?  Foreign  ownership  and  corporate  performance  in  China”. Leverhulme  Centre  for  Research  on  Globalization  and  Economic  Policy, Research Paper 09/05.]   

 

5.  Results: description and interpretation 

The results must be discussed at length, providing interpretations 

 

Example:  

First state the result: ―The employment of the centrally affiliated firms is not influenced by financial factors, whereas both local affiliated and non-affiliated firms  are  subject  to  financial  constrains  to  their  employment.  Any  percent increase in cash flow can significantly induce 0.18 and 0.17 percent increases in  employment  in  locally  affiliated  and  non-affiliated  private  firms respectively.

 

Then,  provide  the  interpretations:  This  provides  evidence  that  affiliation  to high level of government does mitigate the adverse effects of financial factors to firms‘ employment, and suggests that political connections could give firms better access to bank loans. [Chen, M. and A. Guariglia (2009). “Do Financial Factors  Affect  Firms’  Employment?  Evidence  from  Chinese  Manufacturing Firms.” Mimeograph] 

•Stress/discuss the original results; spend little time on standard results. 

•Link your results to the hypotheses you developed in the previous section. 

•Provide various tests for the robustness of your results (e.g. see if your results hold for different regions or different industrial groups) 17 

 

6. Conclusions and implications 

 

•Provide a summary of what you did in the paper 

•Show what you have added to the literature 

•If possible and relevant, provide a discussion of policy implications   

 

Example: 

―As  for  the  policy  implications  that  arise  from  this  study,  policy  makers  in China need to recognize the importance of improving the ability of privately-owned SMEs to access bank financing, especially in the long-term. This might be  done  through  the  development  of  effective  credit-rating  and  guarantee schemes.  

Informal  financing  mechanisms  based  on  social  capital  might  have supported the growth of Chinese SMEs until the present day, but are arguably not appropriate if China is to develop world-class private enterprises able to compete  globally.  The  development  of  effective  financing  mechanisms  is especially important in times of economic crisis as we are experiencing today, when informal credit on offer to SMEs has dried up.‖ (Du et al., 2009) 19 

 

 

•Say something about future research possibilities 

 

Example: 

 

―Our  research  could  be  extended  in  several  directions.  First,  it  would  be interesting to see whether our results hold for other investment models, such as the error-correction or the Euler-equation model.  Second, other proxies for investment opportunities could be developed in the context of small businesses.   

 

Third,  it  would  be  interesting  to  assess  whether  our  results  hold  for different  countries,  characterized  by  different  degrees  of  financial development.  These  extensions  are  in  the  agenda  for  future  research.‖ [D’Espallier, B. and A. Guariglia (2009). “Does the investment opportunities bias  affect  the  investment-cash  flow  sensitivities  of  unlisted  SMEs?” Mimeograph] 

 

7. Referencing 

 

Providing full and accurate references to your sources is a very important part of presenting your work. There are two aspects of this: 

o citations that point to references (e.g. Keynes (1936), p. 383);  

o the  bibliography,  that  contains  information  about  the  references themselves. 

Here are some rules: 

 

i.  You must always include direct quotations from other people‘s work 

— published or unpublished — in inverted commas: ‗‗ ‘‘. Failure to so is a serious academic offence. 

 

Always follow a quotation with the relevant citation. Example: 

 

Many  commentators  believe  that  policy  makers  are  pragmatic  and  not much  influenced  by  ideas.  Keynes  disagreed:  ‗‗Practical  men  …  areusually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear  voices  in  the  air,  are  distilling  their  frenzy  from  some  academicscribbler of a few years back.‘‘ (Keynes, 1936, p. 383) 

 

The  citation,  Keynes,  1936  in  the  example,  should  point  to  exactly  one reference in the bibliography, which appears at the end of your paper.  

 

ii. Citations should also appear when you refer to the work of others without direct quotation.  

 

Example: 

… In their model of commodity prices, Deaton and Laroque (1992) postulate the existence of a single threshold price, above which stocks of the commodity have been driven to zero. … 

 

In this example, the citation Deaton and Laroque (1992) alerts the reader to the source of the work being discussed. 

 

iii.  The bibliography is a list of references that appears at the end of your paper.  The  following  information  should  always  be  included:  author; date of publication; title of the work. For a book you should also include the edition, place of publication and publisher. For an article you should include the journal or book in which the article appears as well as page numbers and, if possible, the volume number. 

 

For unpublished works, you will have to use your discretion but always make clear the origin of the work (i.e. from where it can be obtained). List the references in alphabetical order by author. 

 

Examples: 

 

Deaton,  A.  S.  and  G.  Laroque  (1992),  ―On  the  behaviour  of  commodity prices.‖ Review of Economic Studies, vol. 59, pp. 1–23. Keynes,  J.  M.  (1936),  The  General  Theory  of  Employment,  Interest  and Money. London: Macmillan. Krugman, P. (1999) ―Thinking about the liquidity trap.‖ (unpublished) URL:, December 1999. 26 

 

Symeonidis,  G.  (1999),  ―Price  and  non-price  competition  with  endogenous  market  structure.‖  (unpublished)  University  of  Essex  Economics  Discussion Paper Series, No. 501, August 1999. 

 

Notice that the Krugman (1999) reference is to a paper available on the www. In this case it is conventional to provide the URL (i.e. the address) between angle brackets, < >. 

 

iv.  You  do  have  discretion  in  terms  of  how  you  present  your  citations  and bibliography.  That  is,  you  are  not  required  rigidly  to  adhere  to  the  style outlined above.  

 

v. You may come across non-standard cases which do not fit into the above categories, in which case try to be as systematic as you can. For instance, if there is no author such as for a newspaper article, give the reference by title.  

 

Example: 

The Economist (2000), ―The ECB heads for turbulence.‖ January 29 2000, pp. 105–6. 


 

vi. Two important rules: 

o For every citation, there must be exactly one reference in the bibliography. 

o For every reference in the bibliography, there must be at least one citation. 

Never include references in the bibliography that are not cited in your paper. 

 

II.  Last words 

 

 Make sure that you spell-check the final version of your dissertation before you submit it.  

 Make sure that you re-read the final draft of your dissertation at least seven times before you hand it in. If you do not do so, it is likely that many errors and  inaccuracies  will  remain  in  it  and  you  will  lose  marks.  You  will  be surprised at how many errors you will find each time you re-read your draft. 


C.  Basic panel data regression analysis using Stata 

 

1. Definition 

2. Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) 

3. Fixed effects 


1. Definition 

Panel data (longitudinal data): pooling of observations on a cross section of economic agents over several time periods.  

2. Pooled OLS regression 

Suppose you want to run the following regression: 

I it  /K i(t-1)  = a 0  + a 1  CF it  /K i(t-1)  +  v i  + v t  + e it      

 

     

where i indexes firms and t indexes time.  

I       denotes the firm‘s investment  

K       its capital stock ; CF       its cash flow  32 

 

The error term in the Equation above contains 3 components: 

o v i : firm specific component that includes all firm characteristics that do not vary with time, but affect investment. An example of these characteristics could be the firm‘s managers‘ attitude towards risk (i.e. whether managers are  risk  lovers  or  risk  averse).  Another  example  could  be  managerial quality. 

o v t : time specific component, accounted for by including time dummies in the regression.  

o e it : idiosyncratic component of the error term. 33 

o To  estimate  your  investment  equation  by  OLS,  you  would  type  the following command: 

reg ik  cfk, robust 

o The ―robust‖ option gives error terms that are robust to heteroskedasticity. 

o Including time dummies [y12-y18; obtained by typing: tab year, gen (y1)] as  well,  the  command  and  output  look as  follows:  reg  ik    cfk  y12-y18, robust 


reg ik cfk y12-y18, robust 

 

 

Linear regression                                      Number of obs =   50792 

                                                       F(  8, 50783) =   17.03 

                                                       Prob > F      =  0.0000 

                                                       R-squared     =  0.4084 

                                                       Root MSE      =  566.22 

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

             |               Robust 

          ik |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval] 

-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- 

         cfk |  -.8851148   .0909891    -9.73   0.000    -1.063454   -.7067753 

         y12 |  -21.02766   12.14177    -1.73   0.083    -44.82565    2.770336 

         y13 |   2.974283   3.123081     0.95   0.341     -3.14699    9.095555 

         y14 |    2.07409   2.603769     0.80   0.426    -3.029325    7.177504 

         y15 |  -34.49331   14.08698    -2.45   0.014    -62.10394   -6.882679 

         y16 |   2.856203   4.645294     0.61   0.539    -6.248622    11.96103 

         y17 |   .4052324   4.083605     0.10   0.921    -7.598676    8.409141 

         y18 |   6.429211   3.698681     1.74   0.082    -.8202434    13.67867 

       _cons |   42.25229   3.247488    13.01   0.000     35.88718     48.6174 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

 

How to read this Table? 

A coefficient is statistically significant at the 5% level if: 

o its t-statistic is above 1.96 or below -1.96 

o its p-value is below 0.05   36 

A coefficient is statistically significant at the 10% level if: 

o its t-statistic is above 1.65 or below -1.65 

o its p-value is below 0.10   37 

 

 

You can include a lagged dependent variable into your equation. This leads to 

a dynamic model.  

 

In this case, the command is:  reg ik  l.ik cfk y12-y18, robust 

This is equivalent to estimating the equation: 

I it  /K i(t-1)  = a 0  + a 1  I i(t-1)  /K i(t-2)  + a 2 CF it  /K i(t-1)  +  v i  + v t  + e it      

 

. reg ik l.ik cfk y12-y18, robust 

 

Linear regression                                      Number of obs =   44189 

                                                       F(  8, 44180) =   12.66 

                                                       Prob > F      =  0.0000 

                                                       R-squared     =  0.5145 

                                                       Root MSE      =  478.16 

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

             |               Robust 

          ik |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval] 

-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- 

          ik | 

         L1. |  -.0054137    .002202    -2.46   0.014    -.0097298   -.0010977 

         cfk |   -.870642   .1004969    -8.66   0.000    -1.067618   -.6736662 

         y12 |  (dropped) 

         y13 |   10.92086   3.821735     2.86   0.004     3.430196    18.41153 

         y14 |   9.873364   3.350431     2.95   0.003     3.306459    16.44027 

         y15 |  -26.49544   14.21423    -1.86   0.062    -54.35558    1.364707 

         y16 |   9.551217   5.129863     1.86   0.063    -.5034045    19.60584 

         y17 |   8.486034   4.634428     1.83   0.067    -.5975283     17.5696 

         y18 |   14.35822   4.277006     3.36   0.001     5.975212    22.74123 

       _cons |   33.56754   4.443573     7.55   0.000     24.85806    42.27702 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 


You can also run your regression for various sub-groups of firms, for instance for exporters: 

reg ik  cfk y12-y18 if expdum==1, robust 

or  for  state-owned  firms  etc.  (soek  is  a  dummy  equal  to  1  for  state-owned firms, and 0 otherwise) 

reg ik  cfk y12-y18 if soek==1, robust 

 

Problems with OLS:  

o it  does  not  take  into  account  the  v i   component  of  the  error  term (unobserved heterogeneity) 

o it does not take into account the fact that cash flow and investment may be contemporaneously determined, i.e. that cash flow may be endogenous. 

o In a dynamic setting, I i(t-1)  /K i(t-2)  is correlated with the v i  component of the error  term    inconsistent  (upward  biased)  estimates  of  the  lagged dependent variable coefficient. 

 

3. Fixed effects estimator (also called within groups estimator) 

 

It  accounts  for  the  v i   component  of  the  error  term,  by  transforming  the equation  in  differences  of  each  variable  from  its  mean.  In  other  words,  it controls for ―unobserved heterogeneity‖. The equation it estimates is: 

 

I it  /K i(t-1)  – (I i  /K i )*=  a 1  [(CF it  /K i(t-1) )- (CF i  /K i )*] +(v t  – v t *) + (e it -e i *) 

 

where * indicates mean values, i.e.  

    (I i  /K i )* = (1/T)[ (I i2  /K i1 ) + (I i3  /K i2 ) +... + (I iT  /K i(T-1) )]  

The command will be: 

 xtreg ik  cfk y12-y18, fe 

The output for the static model would look as follows: 


Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs      =     50792 

Group variable: number                          Number of groups   =      6529 

 

R-sq:  within  = 0.4205                         Obs per group: min =         4 

       between = 0.3286                                        avg =       7.8 

       overall = 0.4084                                        max =         8 

 

                                                F(8,44255)         =   4013.54 

corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.0592                        Prob > F           =    0.0000 

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

          ik |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval] 

-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- 

         cfk |  -.9094596   .0050779  -179.10   0.000    -.9194123   -.8995069 

         y12 |  -20.73012   10.50903    -1.97   0.049    -41.32801   -.1322387 

         y13 |   2.968461   10.51051     0.28   0.778    -17.63232    23.56924 

         y14 |   2.508857   10.50884     0.24   0.811    -18.08866    23.10638 

         y15 |  -34.47516   10.53183    -3.27   0.001    -55.11774   -13.83258 

         y16 |   3.200465   10.50785     0.30   0.761     -17.3951    23.79603 

         y17 |   .8482673    10.5075     0.08   0.936    -19.74662    21.44315 

         y18 |   7.108059   10.50874     0.68   0.499    -13.48926    27.70537 

       _cons |   43.03448   7.879796     5.46   0.000     27.58995    58.47902 

-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- 

     sigma_u |  222.82496 

     sigma_e |  559.72247 

         rho |  .13680205   (fraction of variance due to u_i) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

F test that all u_i=0:     F(6528, 44255) =     1.18         Prob > F = 0.0000 


Rho tells you what is the percentage of the total variance of your dependent variable captured by v i  (in this case, this percentage is 14%). 

 

Problem  with  the  fixed  effects  estimator:  it  still  does  not  account  for  the possible endogeneity of cash flow. 

Also, if you estimate a dynamic model, then: 

[I i(t-1)  /K i(t-2)  – (I i  /K i )*] will obviously be correlated with (e it -e i *), 

as (I i /K i )* is correlated with e i *  inconsistent (downward biased) estimates of the lagged dependent variable coefficient. 45 

4. Arellano  and  Bond  (1991)  Generalized  Methods  of  Moments  (GMM) estimator 

Suppose we wish to estimate the following dynamic model: 

I it  /K i(t-1)  = a 0  + a 1  I i(t-1)  /K i(t-2)  + a 2 CF it  /K i(t-1)  +  v i  + v t  + e it     

The GMM estimator is the best estimator, as it accounts both for unobserved heterogeneity and for the possible endogeneity of the regressors.  

o It accounts for unobserved heterogeneity by estimating the equation in first-differences, i.e. 

(I it  /K i(t-1) )–(I i(t-1)  /K i(t-2) ) =  a 1 [(I i(t-1)  /K i(t-2) )-(I i(t-2)  /K i(t-3) )] +  

+a 2 [(CF it  /K i(t-1) )-(CF i(t-1)  /K i(t-2) )] +(v t  – v t-1 ) + (e it -e i(t-1) ) 

o It accounts for endogeneity by instrumenting the endogenous regressors with two or more lags of themselves. 

Instruments have to be lagged twice or more to ensure that they are not correlated with the idiosyncratic component of the error term, (e it -e i(t-1) ) 

 

Example:  

o t=4 

(I i4  /K i3 )-(I i3  /K i2 )=a 1 [(I i3  /K i2 )-(I i2  /K i1 )]+a 2 [(CF i4  /K i3 )-(CF i3  /K i2 )]+(v 4 –v 3 )+(e i4 -e i3 ) 

I i2  /K i1  is a valid instrument since highly correlated with [(I i3  /K i2 )-(I i2  /K i1 )] and uncorrelated with (e i4 -e i3 ) 

o t=5 

(I i5  /K i4 )-(I i4  /K i3 )=a 1 [(I i4  /K i3 )-(I i3  /K i2 )]+a 2 [CF i5  /K i4 -(CF i4  /K i3 )]+(v 5 –v 4 )+(e i5 -e i4 ) 

I i3   /K i2   and  I i2   /K i1   are  valid  instruments  since  highly  correlated  with  [(I i4  /K i3 )-(I i3  /K i2 )] and uncorrelated with (e i5 -e i4 ) 48 

o t=T:  I i2  /K i1  , I i3  /K i2 , ...,  I i(T-2)  /K i(T-2-1)  are valid instruments. 

The  command  to  be  used  to  estimate  a  model  with  GMM  is  xtabond2. Before using it, you need to install it on your computer by typing: 

 

ssc install xtabond2 

 

The command to estimate your investment equation should read: 

xtabond2  ik  l.ik  cfk  y12-y18  ,  gmm(cfk  ik,  laglimits(2  2))  iv(y11-y18  ) noleveleq robust small  nomata 

Instruments used in the estimation are cfk and ik lagged two periods (cfk t-2,  k t-2 ).  

[Note: laglimits (x y) indicated that the latest instrument is lagged x times and the earliest one is lagged y times] 

The time dummies (not lagged) are also included in the instrument set. 

The output will look as follows: 

 

Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data estimation, one-step difference GMM results 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

Group variable: number                          Number of obs      =     37593 

Time variable : year                            Number of groups   =      6529 

Number of instruments = 18                      Obs per group: min =         1 

F(7, 6528)    =      3.98                                      avg =      5.76 

Prob > F      =     0.000                                      max =         6 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

             |               Robust 

             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval] 

-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- 

          ik | 

         L1. |   -.001168   .0005246    -2.23   0.026    -.0021964   -.0001396 

         cfk |   .0979312    .055524     1.76   0.078    -.0109139    .2067763 

         y13 |   4.150606   2.939667     1.41   0.158    -1.612105    9.913316 

         y14 |  -14.72795   18.90624    -0.78   0.436    -51.79038    22.33448 

         y15 |  -36.94477   13.79228    -2.68   0.007    -63.98215   -9.907388 

         y16 |   .7523111   4.252736     0.18   0.860    -7.584444    9.089066 

         y17 |  -3.451998   3.622561    -0.95   0.341     -10.5534    3.649408 

         y18 |  -5.579046   3.673513    -1.52   0.129    -12.78033    1.622242 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(10) =  16.16    Prob > chi2 =  0.095 

 

Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z =  -1.46  Pr > z =  0.143 

Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z =  -0.82  Pr > z =  0.412 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 51 

 

You can use instruments lagged two, three, and four times (cfk t-2 , cfk t-3 , cfk t-4; 

ik t-2 , ik t-3 , ik t-4 ) instead of only two times. In this case, the command looks like: 

xtabond2  ik  l.ik  cfk  y12-y18  ,  gmm(cfk  ik  ,  laglimits(2  4))  iv(y11-y18  ) noleveleq robust small  nomata 

The output will be: 

Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data estimation, one-step difference GMM results 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

Group variable: number                          Number of obs      =     37593 

Time variable : year                            Number of groups   =      6529 

Number of instruments = 36                      Obs per group: min =         1 

F(7, 6528)    =      6.28                                      avg =      5.76 

Prob > F      =     0.000                                      max =         6 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

             |               Robust 

             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval] 

-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- 

          ik | 

         L1. |  -.0027787   .0013407    -2.07   0.038     -.005407   -.0001504 

         cfk |   -.300748   .2566093    -1.17   0.241    -.8037862    .2022902 

         y13 |   6.520779   3.304253     1.97   0.048     .0433607     12.9982 

         y14 |   -5.01961   13.56572    -0.37   0.711    -31.61287    21.57365 

         y15 |  -32.96227   14.00683    -2.35   0.019    -60.42025   -5.504294 

         y16 |   4.055528   4.972904     0.82   0.415    -5.692992    13.80405 

         y17 |   1.124406   4.707044     0.24   0.811    -8.102941    10.35175 

         y18 |   2.390772   6.206069     0.39   0.700    -9.775155     14.5567 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(28) =  46.22    Prob > chi2 =  0.017 

 

Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z =  -1.73  Pr > z =  0.084 

Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z =  -0.55  Pr > z =  0.584 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 


 

o Although more instruments would be valid in this setting (cfk t-5 , ik t-5 ,   cfk t-6 ,  ik t-6  etc.),  it  is  not  a  good  idea to  use  too  many  instruments,  as  this leads to an overfitting bias.  

o Note: in the gmm(…) command, you should never put lagged variables. 

o The estimated coefficient on the lagged dependent variable should fall between  the  upward  biased  OLS  coefficient  and  the  downward  biased fixed-effects coefficient.  

 

The Sargan and m2 tests  


In  order  to  evaluate  whether  your  model  is  correctly  specified  and  whether your instruments are valid, two criteria are frequently used: The J statistic and the test for second order serial correlation of the residuals in the  differenced equation (m2).  

o The former is the Sargan/Hansen test for overidentifying restrictions. If the model is correctly specified, the variables in the instrument set should be uncorrelated with the idiosyncratic component of the error term e it .  

o The m2 test provides a further check on the specification of the model and  on the legitimacy of variables dated t-2 as instruments. 

o In order for the instruments to be acceptable, the p-values for the Sargan test and the m2 test should both be greater than 0.05. 

 

More help 

 

Baum (2006), Chapters 4.1, 9.1.1, 9.1.2, 9.3 

help reg 

help xtreg 

help xtabond2 


Last point: Dealing with outliers 

Before running regressions, you should drop the outliers for all regression variables.  

Outliers are extreme observations, and leaving them in the sample can bias  the results.  Typically, we deal with this problem by dropping observations below the 1st percentile and above the 99th percentile for all regression variables.  

Do NOT drop outliers for variables that you do not use in regressions.  57 

The code for dropping outliers is: 

foreach var of varlist ik cfk wkk1 invwkk1 assetsgr srgrowth collateral 

leverage empg prod leverage expratio { 

egen per99`var'=pctile(`var') , p(99) 

egen per1`var'=pctile(`var') ,p(1) 

 

quietly drop if `var'
quietly drop if `var'>per99`var' & `var'!=. 

drop per1`var' per99`var'  


 ―cfk  wkk1  invwkk1  assetsgr  srgrowth  collateral  leverage  empg  prod leverage  expratio‖  are  the  variables  I  had  in  my  regressions.  Please substitute to these the variables that you have in your own regressions. 

And finally …. 

 

Data can be found at the site: 

 

 The  main  dataset  is  called  ―panelasiafinforstudents‖.  It  contains data  for China and other East Asian countries up to 2009. 59 

 The variables that you will need to use are all clearly labelled 

 Note, however, that there are several variables in the dataset that you will not understand. Just ignore them 

 If the focus of your dissertation is to only look at China, then you need to type: keep if country==―China‖ 

 The source of your data is Thomson Financial‘s Worldscope database 


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